Munster SHC state of play: What the five counties need to do to qualify
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES: Cork’s Patrick Horgan collides with Limerick’s Fergal O’Connor during last Saturday’s clash. Should Cork lose to Tipperary, their chances of qualifying are gone.
HE halfway point of the Munster SHC round-robin has been reached and passed. The picture is anything but clear. Cork made sure of that on Saturday night.
A Limerick victory down by the Lee would have made the province’s permutations a great deal more straightforward — and shorter to compile.
A Limerick victory down by the Lee would have removed Cork from the qualifying equation. It would also have removed Limerick from the qualifying race by securing their Munster final involvement with a round to spare, leaving Clare, Tipp, and Waterford to dance around the two remaining chairs until the music stopped.
Saturday night, though, means there are still three chairs in the middle of the floor and five counties still circling them.
Never mind the five circling, our head is the one spinning from all the eventualities still at play. Here’s a somewhat lengthy snippet.
Oh, and it’s important to bear in mind, score difference across all four matches will be applicable if three or more teams conclude the round-robin on the same number of points.
A defeat carries the same consequences as it did last weekend. Lose to Tipp and they are gone.
A draw isn’t a whole pile of use either. They’d then be banking on Tipp securing a third draw of the series, with Clare in Round 5, and either Clare losing to Waterford this weekend, or Waterford losing on the road at Ennis and the Gaelic Grounds — all just to create a three-way tie on three points to be settled by score difference. Not going to happen.
A win gets Pat Ryan’s men to four points and eliminates Tipp in the process. That means the Premier would have nothing to play for in Round 5 against Clare, increasing the likelihood of Clare taking maximum points at Thurles and their minimum finishing total coming in at four points too.
Scenarios in that instance that see four points being enough for Cork, without score difference entering the room, include: Waterford failing to take a single point off Clare and Limerick; Clare and Waterford finishing on five points or more, meaning Cork take third on account of their head-to-head against Limerick.
As mentioned, a second defeat of the campaign on Sunday ends their interest.
Given their -15 score difference, Tipp want to avoid finishing on three or four points with two other counties.
A draw against Cork is only of use to them if they back it up with a win at home to Clare on the last day.
Should they manage that, four points becomes enough so long as Clare lose or draw against Waterford this weekend, or Waterford don’t improve on their current three-point total.
A win this weekend, but defeat the next, won’t extend their championship beyond May.
Three points is as much as they’ve ever had after two rounds. Three points is as much as they’ve ever compiled full stop.
Their remaining schedule, though, is easily the most difficult of the five: Away to Clare and Limerick.
A win over either secures Waterford a first-ever top-three finish. A draw against Clare, but defeat to the champions, won’t prove fatal so long as Cork win this weekend.
Level on four points, Waterford would take Cork on the head-to-head.
Waterford losing to Clare and Limerick by a combined total of five points, Cork and Tipp drawing this weekend, and Tipp and Clare subsequently drawing, creates the earlier mentioned three-way tie — from which Waterford would emerge.
If Brian Lohan’s side fall to Davy’s Déise on Sunday and Tipp take two points off Cork, then the Round 5 trip to Thurles turns into a must-win for Clare to take third behind Limerick and Waterford.
As earlier outlined, Cork winning this Sunday means Clare then meet a Tipp team already exited.
Should Clare win that fixture, off the back of losing to Waterford, they and Cork would finish on four points.
Clare take that head-to-head, if Limerick have moved off four points by getting some sort of a result at home to Waterford.
Win or draw against Waterford and the five-in-a-row remains alive.
There are eventualities, mind, where the five-in-a-row remains alive even if they suffer back-to-back championship defeats.
Any three-way tie on four points would suit them fine, given their +16 score difference is 13 points greater than Clare.
Tipp winning or drawing this weekend, but subsequently losing at home to Clare, would see Limerick’s current four-point total punching their ticket to the All-Ireland series.
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